Episode 46:It’s The Economy, Stupid
How, as an independent business owner, should you handle a shock to the economic (or psychological) system of your country?
In this episode of Make Money Online, we talk about how to secure your business against economic disruption, why you should always be thinking about how your industry will change over the next few years, and why it’s important to diversify your income stream from purely consulting to consulting, information (educational) products, coaching, mentoring, etc., in case one stream drys up.
We also discuss about the importance of positioning as a consultant. To survive in a down (or changing) economy, you need to have strong, specific positioning that identifies both the target market and the expensive problem that you solve. Why?
Because in a changing economy, generalists are the first against the wall when the budget is cut.
Thanks for listening. Best recommended with a strong beer or a nice, sippable whiskey.
Summary
Nick and Kai walk through how independent consultants can keep their businesses intact when the economy turns bad. They cover financial basics, why specialists survive downturns better than generalists, and why the craft of business, finding wallet-out customers, understanding client problems, is more durable than any specific skill you practice.
Highlights
- Nick recommends maxing a SEP IRA (up to 25% of salary for solo operators without full-time employees) and keeping strict business/personal cash separation as baseline moves before a downturn hits.
- Kai argues the specific discipline you practice, Rails dev, designer, outreach consultant, is secondary to knowing how to find customers and close business. He and Nick note their actual conversations almost never touch what Kai does day-to-day.
- Generalists take the hardest hit. Kai’s point: a business owner with half last year’s revenue goes to Upwork, not to an undifferentiated commodity developer. A specialist who can say ‘hiring me solves business problem A and pays back the fee’ keeps the contract.
- Economic shocks often have readable lead time. Kai cites the gap between a major political event and actual market impact as a 6-to-18-month window to build pipeline, create referral systems, and make yourself indispensable to existing clients.
- Nick flags that recessions shrink the addressable market by default, which makes getting more specific with positioning more urgent, not less.
- Kai’s revenue at recording: roughly 85% consulting, 10% coaching, 5% info products. He identifies that split as fragile and flags group coaching and info products (like the Outreach Blueprint) as ways to cushion a consulting client loss.
- Kai recommends asking past clients not ‘was my work good?’ but ‘why did you hire me and what was the underlying business problem?’, it positions you as a business peer and surfaces better data for repositioning.
Read the transcript
I remember in the very first conversation that we had in person, the biggest topic that we covered was Figuring out where the money comes from that ends up getting you paid, right? Because it’s nice to have, you know, payment from a client. I’m not against that, but They get paid somehow, right? They have a business. They’re figuring out what’s going on. And towards that end, you have a responsibility to understand: okay, well, how do you make money? We even mentioned this on a previous Make Money Online episode pretty recently, where we were talking about, like, well, how does your business make money? And that was the number one question that you, Kai, ask everybody. I want to think about this in a more grim way for a minute and talk a little bit about like down economy type stuff. Because one thing that a consultant we respect a great deal on this podcast, Alan Weiss, talks about is a down economy is an opportunity to basically Spend a lot and take advantage, right? Because everyone else is paused. And I don’t know if I fully agree with that, but I don’t. I also. I started independent work in 2012 and by that point the economy, at least for the tech industry, was going pretty well. And so I never really had to deal with that sort of fear, right? I mean, I lived through 2008 and I lived through all the problems that that brought about, but I was in a stable, comfortable W-2 gig at the time. Didn’t really have to worry about like things like my retirement account because I was what 26 at the time, you know, so I I wonder about that. So we’re going to talk today about things you can do when the economy is not doing well. To continue succeeding as a consultant, because you want to weather that, right? You’re not in this just when the times are good. And given infinite time, the times are going to be bad. Winter is coming, right?
Right. There’s always going to be outside shocks to the system. Just when you view it from an economic perspective, actors make moves. It shocks the system in some way. And that affects how cash flows, how business operates. Be it an election, something else, a housing crisis, a bubble popping. there are so many different things that could change how the market around you operates. So what are, for lack of a better word, evergreen strategies that you should put in place as a consultant to make yourself more resilient, to make your independent business More independent, more healthy, more not isolated, but more, I’m struggling for the word here, outside of the influence of the shocks, more resilient.
Yeah, and more durable, right? Like, so you know, it’s easy to just say, well, build up a giant cash cushion. Well, okay, what happens if you have a recession that lasts several years? What happens if you get great depression part two? You know, and I’m not trying to wish that on anybody, but like given infinite time, that’s going to happen to you. Right. So with that in mind, obviously building up cash reserves is one big thing. Being careful about your investments is another big thing Having a very clear delineation between business and personal cash is another big thing. And making sure as much of it is in the business as possible and only taking out personal cash when you need it. Those all seem like very basic initial things that you should be doing that I hope are beyond debate. But if you’ve been in business for five minutes, you may not know about them, right? You have a business account in order to legally and logistically inure yourself from big fluctuations like this, right? And there are limits on what you can contribute into a retirement account, like an IRA or 401k in the United States. every year. If you’re an independent like myself, you have access to what’s called a SEP IRA or self-employment plan. And that’s for individual businesses, you can cap your SEP IRA contribution at 25% of your salary, which is bonkers. It’s a fuck ton of money. And if you have so long as you have part-time employees, you don’t have or like contractors, you don’t have full-time employees, you can take advantage of this. So that’s maybe one recommendation that I have there is provide the limit to that and then be careful beyond that. Invest in low risk vehicles. Be very careful about where you’re putting your money. Broader than that, always be vigilant about what conditions the market is in right now. For example, if you did not know that over the past five years, Stock volatility has been higher than usual, you have some reading to do, right? I’ve known that. I’ve known that swings are going to be wider, and I’ve tried to react to that. And say, okay, well, it’s not the end of the world. The sky is not falling. You need to know whether or not the economy is in recession or gaining. You need to know what the latest jobs report was. You need to know what the state of manufactured goods and the tech industry is looking like. You need to know geopolitically what’s going on with the tech industry. Like, for example, What country has a giant firewall and runs almost all of their consumer activity through one application? You know? You should know the name of that country. P. S. It’s China.
I don’t know the name of the application, though. Ah, yep, you’re right. Yep. So
Knowing all these things helps you act on the actual piece of advice that I’m going to give you, which is you should be always following where the money is and where the expensive problems are. And that is advice that works in any economy of any condition, right? And you have an opportunity to take generous advantage of that those sorts of conditions. Hopefully it’s for the better, right? Like let’s say I work for like a lifestyle good luxury brand or something like that, and their minimum average selling price is $250. I’ll take an example. Stone Island. They’re the sweater that I’m wearing right now. They sell like $300 sweaters and $900 jackets. They are not for everyone, right? It took a long time before I pulled the trigger on this and a lot of waffling. If this were a recession and I were scared, I would probably not have bought this sweater. We’ve been doing pretty well lately, and my business has been doing pretty well, and so I’ve got the sweater on, right? Okay, well now let’s say I’m running a consulting engagement for Stone Island and then some giant seismic, I don’t know, Great Depression 2 happens, right? I’m going to continue working for Stone Island for at least a little while, but I may have a conversation with the CEO about what influence that this is having on their business. and try and figure out how to isolate opportunities to speak to a newly scared public, you know? I might try and figure out ways to reassure the moneyed clientele that’s used to coming in my door. Those sorts of things, right? And that’s, you know, you’re not an economist and you’re not a politico, but you are. paying attention to the trade winds of the world, right? That’s nonpartisan. That is non yeah, that is not a policy standpoint. That is just listening.
Completely agreed. I look around at major disruptions or major shocks to. I’m U. S. -centric because I’m in America. So I look at things like the gold rush, the Great Depression, the 2008 housing bubble. People made money in each of these opportunities or each of these crises because. There are opportunities to make money. There will always be an opportunity to make money. And you hit the nail on the head when you said it’s about identifying those expensive problems and following where the money is. There will always be. Some set of people who need a problem solved. It might mean that your consulting business in the shape it is in today, or your independent business, it’s not solving the same problem that people need solved anymore, which means you need to. Do market research, identify if you need to choose a new target market, figure out if you need to solve a new problem, and maybe invest in education to learn how to solve said problem. But I look around and say, you know what? If the Great Depression hit, the Great Depression 2. 0 hits tomorrow, well, there’s going to still be people spending money. There’s going to still be. Cash changing hands, I might need to make a radical, jagged shift in what my business is, what services I’m providing, what market I’m targeting, and what problems I’m solving. But Am I dedicated to practicing a craft or a discipline that no longer is in demand? Or am I dedicated to operating an independent business to make money? I fall very much on the second half of that equation. I’m in the business of doing business, not necessarily the business of practicing a particular discipline. So when I see the trade wind shift, I see it as an opportunity to say, hmm, this is interesting. I want to sit back and just like look and observe and see where are things changing? What things are changing? What new needs are being exposed? And how could I help people satisfy or resolve those needs and be compensated fairly for having taken that action? So, in any sort of Economic shift, shock to the market as a whole, I feel like there are opportunities for consultants to for any business owner to make more money. But you have to be open minded. You have to be receptive to changing what your business is. In order to succeed, evolve or die.
And, you know, we even talked about this on a very early episode of Make Money Online, where I was like, well, you were doing SEO and going hard in the paint on that for a long period of time. And Eventually, it got kind of tarred with the same brush as like really gross online marketer types, right? So you ended up moving more into outreach, right? There was that and kind of an evolution of your thinking at the same time. So nowhere in that, and I think the key point here is that you took SEO for granted. You never took SEO for granted, right? Understood that this was what you were doing right now and talked a lot about it and tried to educate people about it. But then your thinking evolved on it. Just like my thinking evolved on like web apps and making wireframes to like research-driven A-B testing.
And even a shift from SaaS to more e-commerce.
Do you think that, yeah, yeah. Do you think that major financial shocks provide good opportunities to revise or throw away and start anew with your positioning?
I really, really think they do. But I think it needs to be cautiously approached. I think and again, it comes back to market research and just observing the market. Let’s say there’s a shock, and you notice that, oh wow, a lot of businesses serving a particular market have gone out of business, but that market still exists and they still have needs. Well, there’s maybe a smaller pie there. It could only support, say, three businesses of a type in my town instead of the 10 that used to be there before. But there’s no reason why I can’t modify my positioning to be one of those three. So any sort of shock like this provides a reset, in a sense. Makes the membrane preventing you from entering that business arena a little thinner, a little easier to get past. So, I definitely do think that a shock to a system, be it Hey, we’re in a boom right now, or hey, we’re in Great Depression 2. 0, or hey, this economic shock just happened, all provide opportunities to revise positioning. Revise the services you offer, revise even your pricing. I mean, you might enter a depression-esque era and say, you know, I’m going to raise my pricing right now because here’s an opportunity for me to position myself as top of market. There might be fewer people at top of market who are buying these services, but I want to position myself to serve them exclusively. So very much yes, in response to that.
Another thing I’m hearing in this and that it’s an opportunity to get way more specific with the positioning, right? Because your addressable market is shrinking by default of the fact that less money is moving around in the system, right? So you have fewer economic buyers to actually capture that from. Which is scary, you know. All of this is scary. Recessions are not easy. But they will happen.
Yes. I mean, I think it’s a universal constant that business will change and business will change around you. And If we were in 100% absolute control of our businesses, well, it wouldn’t really be a business anymore. It would be a solved problem. What I enjoy about business is the fact that it’s, in a lot of ways, a continually unsolved problem or an evolving problem around me. And Each week, each month, each year, I get to focus on a different facet of it. And as I start understanding it more, new problems are unlocked and new areas of my business become implemented, and I get to grow in new directions. Shocks like this provide inspiration and also a push to grow a business. But I think back to the positioning comment and think about somebody who’s positioned very much as a generalist. I build WordPress websites, I write PHP. I think economic shocks like this will hurt generalists the most because they’re an undifferentiated commodity. If you’re a business owner and suddenly saying, huh, it looks like revenue is going to be 50%. This year, what it was last year, you’re going to search on more affordable sites. You’re going to go with the Upwork developer, even if there is a future cost of making that business decision. you’re going to avoid hiring a generalist and go for more of a commodity option, which means positioning and being specific in who you work with and understanding the Business reasons that people hire you as a consultant become even more important because that’s where you stand out. If somebody says, I have half as much money this year as I did last year, why should I hire you? you need to have a very convincing answer to that that goes beyond I’m really good at the PHP or I’m really good at the WordPress. It needs to be, well, you have business problem A. By solving business problem A, you’re going to make this profit paying back the investment you made in hiring me. And everything else is just going to be more profit. You need to be able to have those conversations with clients, and it starts with positioning and it goes on to understanding the market you’re addressing and the problems they’re experiencing. But if you can’t have those conversations, if your conversations are I’m great at swinging the hammer. I’m great at this skill. More likely than not, that’s going to be a contract or an opportunity that’s closed off. So I think positioning becomes even more important than we usually say it is.
And we talk about positioning in like every single episode of this podcast. Welcome to the positioning chat. Okay, Philip Morgan. Talk more about positioning today. But no, I do think there’s some truth to what you’re saying here. And I think the broader takeaway is people will survive. a downturn when they are focused on the practice of business. And positioning is foundational to that, of course. But the more important thing is to be geeking out on business. And then to double down on the practice of business more than the practice of whatever it is you actually do for a living. Because you already know that, you know, like you know how to be a Rails developer, you know, like I don’t have to teach you that. or a designer or an outreach consultant or whatever have you. I think the actual like the number of times I’ve talked to you, Kai, about your actual job and what it is you do on a day-to-day basis, I think I can count them on two hands and I would have fingers left. And like, how much do I talk to you every week? You know? We talk a lot. We talk a lot. Right. So and I think towards that end, what’s more important is How do you make money? How do you actually go about running this business? Because you can have all of the soft skills that you want, but if you’re not actually bringing wallet-out customers in the door, Good luck to you, man. Like, that’s it.
You’re done, you know? Yeah, more and more I’ve revised my thinking to be that, just like you’re saying, understanding the craft of business is important. We could slot in a specific skill set or specific discipline. I mean, look at me. I had no knowledge of SEO. I ran an SEO consulting company for two years. I sort of invented a thing called outreach and started popularizing it. I built that skill set up from drawing on research I did in the sales and the marketing arenas. So Through it all, it’s been a focus on understanding: well, how do I sell as a consultant? How do I build a business? How do I build something that’s durable? And if outreach dies out tomorrow, if whatever skill I’m practicing dies out tomorrow because of a shock to the system or something else, I still have that framework of how to business well. And I could slot anything else in. I mean, over the last two weeks, I’ve texted you, I think, six different business ideas with varying responses from eh, no, to that’s a good one. Any single one of those, I could slot into a framework of operating a business well, and it would produce money because, as we’re both saying, understanding that craft of business, understanding how to get wallet-out customers, that is the primary skill. Whatever it is you practice as a practitioner, I’m a developer, I’m a designer, I’m an outreach consultant, that is secondary, honestly. Secondary to that skill of understanding how to sell or how to understand the problem somebody’s experiencing.
Yeah, I feel that. It’s, you know. You know how to do sales and actually close a sale in a way that doesn’t make people or yourself feel gross. And that’s the skill that’s going to get you to the finished line of life, man.
Right. Let’s grab a designer, somebody who’s really, really good at web design, UI design, and say, Whatever reason, Photoshop, it’s now banned in the U. S. You need to learn another skill. Well, with a couple months of research, you could become pretty damn decent at. Almost anything that you want. I mean, we have Josh Kaufman’s writing in the personal MBA about rapid skill acquisition. Tim Ferriss is writing along the same track. Malcolm Gladwell talking about the idea of 10,000 hours of practice to become an expert. And 1,000 hours of practice to become decent at it. I even think there’s a 100-hour barrier in there where you cross that 100-hour mark and you’re good enough to practice this skill. Slotting in a new skill isn’t the hard part. Understanding how to do the craft of business around that skill, that’s the important part.
So go back and listen to every single episode of our podcast.
One thought that comes to mind is With shocks to the system, be it a political, an economic, or any other type of shock to the system of business around you, there often are. Early warning signs, like we’ve just gone through a U. S. election. There will be shocks to the economic system because of this U. S. election for a range of reasons. But We have these leading indicators. We know the election just happened, and we know it’s going to be a few months before stuff actually starts to hit the fan. So You might have a 6 to 12 to 18 month countdown to prepare yourself for that. Okay, how do you build up your pipeline in the meantime? How do you invest in yourself in the meantime? How do you make sure that your skills aren’t disposable to a client, but are indispensable to a client? So when that client has to make that choice of, hey, I’ve got two expenses here and I need to cut one of them. You’re the person who’s guaranteed to keep that position, to keep that contract. Those are, I think, the key questions to ask whenever you see a shock like this heading down the bottom. I have conversations with all that clients about what.
What are their motivations for having you and keeping you?
Yeah, for sure. One of the most valuable things I recommend students in the W Freelancing Academy do is reach out to past clients and just ask. Questions around the business problem you are helping them solve. Not even the practitional, or not even the skill you practice, like, hey, was my code good? But So, why did you hire me to build this web app in the first place? What was the fundamental business problem? Okay, tell me more about that problem and go deep on understanding it. Because if you’re showing that you understand the craft of business and you’re able to talk with them as a peer, it once again is another asset you’ll have. It’s another reason they’ll think. This is somebody I want to keep on. This is somebody I want to keep working with because it’s not just I hand them the project and they do the project, it’s I discuss the project with them and they help me understand how to improve my business.
Absolutely. And you know, even if they’re not feeling having you right now, I mean, I. Obviously, that sucks, and I feel for you, but like you’re going to get information out of why, you know, and that’s going to help you head that off with somebody else.
I’m looking at my own business right now, and I’m saying, like, if I’m expecting shocks to the system in the next six to 12 months, well, While my business is doing well right now, I want to make sure I’m investing in myself. And what does that look like? Well, maybe it’s finding contractors I could delegate to or finding courses that teach me how to address aspects of businessing that I’m not that great at yet, or setting up repeatable systems and standard operating procedures so I know I have a Flow to generate new clients. I’m very, very fascinated with the practice of generating client referrals right now. And so I’m thinking, well, hey, I want to build up a standard operating procedure. In three months, I know I could always have this referral system going where I’m reaching out to friends, family, contacts, past clients to drum up new work. Maybe it’s only 20% as efficient as it would be in a boom economy, but still if out of every 20 emails I send I get one new client. That’s going to be pretty damn good. And that’s going to further insulate my business against these shocks. And when we come out of a recession or come out of a shocked system, my business will be in an even better position to capitalize on the growth around.
We just went like twenty two minutes on this podcast without talking about info products. Build up passive income.
Yeah. I mean, honestly, passive income is a good option, especially if you. If you’re in the situation where you have high-priced consulting services, but you’ve accidentally priced yourself out of the market because the economy has shifted under you, looking at group coaching options, looking at one-on-one mentoring options, looking at Creating a video course like or a book like the A-B testing manual or the Outreach Blueprint could be great ways to add new revenue streams. And I guess that’s another way to make a more durable business. Look at it and say, how many different streams of revenue do I have coming in, and what percentage does each one account for? For me personally, one stream is coaching. One stream is my consulting work. One stream is my info products. Info products are probably 5% of Kaiko’s income. Coaching, maybe 10%. The rest, that 85% is all consulting. So if I lose a consulting client, it’s a big shock to my business’s system. So I want to diversify that basket and expand it however I can. Bring on another one or two coaching clients, ramp up how I’m selling my info products. So I might split my time and attention across these three, but the benefit to me will be: well, hey, if I lose a client, I’ve picked up some additional revenue from coaching work, or I have a group coaching program now, or my info products are selling well, and that makes it more stable in the long term. Great, great thing to point out.
Yeah, absolutely. What else? What else are we missing? We’re going to get through it. I’m going to make a very nonpartisan statement right now, as much as I possibly can. we did just face an election in the United States. Regardless of whom you supported and what your motivations were for that candidate, we face a candidate who won that is unlike any other candidate in American history. I think that is fairly beyond debate. And you can be like, yeah, he’s better, or yeah, and is fascist and we’re all going to die. Regardless of your position on that, we face uncertainty, and uncertainty causes economic fluctuations. And if you are running a business, you have to worry about that.
Very much so.
So, you know, for better and for worse, we will see what happens. It could be that the recent election brings about a new Pax Romana and a flourishing of the economy. A new era in the United States of America. Neither of us has the answer to that because we have not invented a time machine yet, because it’s not an expensive problem. But we don’t know what’s going to happen, and we’re trying to do everything that we can to make sure that we’re still going to be around. and yelling at you on this stupid podcast that you’ve gladly given us your time and attention for.
Now, I have full intention of my business being around, Kaiko being around in 10, 20, 30 years. The shape and form of it will probably be drastically different. Will I still be doing outreach consulting in 10 years? I don’t know. But I know that I will be providing business value to clients and customers in some way. And whatever way that is, that’s going to come from observing the market, figuring out the pains and problems, and figuring out. Is it a consulting solution, an educational product solution, another type of solution to solve that need? And that’s how I’m going to make my business survive for the next, gosh, 30 plus years.
Yeah. I mean, with draft, there is no plan B. This is my final job. I will die on this ship.
Notes
- The Positioning Manual, Philip Morgan's book on positioning. Go buy this right now.
- Positioning Crash Course, Philip Morgan's free course on positioning. Can't afford his book? Start here.
- Free Pricing Course, because there is no better time than today to start raising your rates.